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1.
J R Soc Interface ; 18(177): 20200970, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1183109

ABSTRACT

School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K-12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: -985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Child , Humans , Physical Distancing , Policy , SARS-CoV-2 , Schools
2.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(5): 1266-1273, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1146234

ABSTRACT

We review the interaction between coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and coccidioidomycosis, a respiratory infection caused by inhalation of Coccidioides fungal spores in dust. We examine risk for co-infection among construction and agricultural workers, incarcerated persons, Black and Latino populations, and persons living in high dust areas. We further identify common risk factors for co-infection, including older age, diabetes, immunosuppression, racial or ethnic minority status, and smoking. Because these diseases cause similar symptoms, the COVID-19 pandemic might exacerbate delays in coccidioidomycosis diagnosis, potentially interfering with prompt administration of antifungal therapies. Finally, we examine the clinical implications of co-infection, including severe COVID-19 and reactivation of latent coccidioidomycosis. Physicians should consider coccidioidomycosis as a possible diagnosis when treating patients with respiratory symptoms. Preventive measures such as wearing face masks might mitigate exposure to dust and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, thereby protecting against both infections.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coccidioidomycosis , Coinfection , Aged , Coccidioidomycosis/epidemiology , Ethnicity , Humans , Minority Groups , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
3.
medRxiv ; 2020 Aug 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-721085

ABSTRACT

Background Large-scale school closures have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the impact of school closures and re-opening on epidemic dynamics remains unclear. Methods We simulated COVID-19 transmission dynamics using an individual-based stochastic model, incorporating social-contact data of school-aged children during shelter-in-place orders derived from Bay Area (California) household surveys. We simulated transmission under observed conditions and counterfactual intervention scenarios between March 17-June 1, and evaluated various fall 2020 K-12 reopening strategies. Findings Between March 17-June 1, assuming children <10 were half as susceptible to infection as older children and adults, we estimated school closures averted a similar number of infections (13,842 cases; 95% CI: 6,290, 23,040) as workplace closures (15,813; 95% CI: 9,963, 22,617) and social distancing measures (7,030; 95% CI: 3,118, 11,676). School closure effects were driven by high school and middle school closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimate that fall 2020 school reopenings will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1), and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). Results are highly dependent on uncertain parameters, notably the relative susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and extent of community transmission amid re-opening. The school-based interventions needed to reduce the risk to fewer than an additional 1% of teachers infected varies by grade level. A hybrid-learning approach with halved class sizes of 10 students may be needed in high schools, while maintaining small cohorts of 20 students may be needed for elementary schools. Interpretation Multiple in-school intervention strategies and community transmission reductions, beyond the extent achieved to date, will be necessary to avoid undue excess risk associated with school reopening. Policymakers must urgently enact policies that curb community transmission and implement within-school control measures to simultaneously address the tandem health crises posed by COVID-19 and adverse child health and development consequences of long-term school closures.

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